The explosive cocktail made by mixing a lack of financing, general uncertainty and a seriously deteriorated
economic situation has already caused effects in Argentine agricultural activities, at least for the medium term. Projections for the 2002/2003 campaign, not only by Argentina, but also those promoted by the USDA
(United States Department of Agriculture), reflect lower rates of production for the next harvest, which will inevitably provoke a reduction of exportations.
According to the report presented by Reinaldo
Muñoz, an expert with Argentine agricultural organization INTA – Department of Social and Economic Studies, located in the city of Pergamino, "The Argentine role in the exportation market will be threatened because of a
simple fact: lower production implicates lower exportations."
The specialist points out that Argentina currently holds, according to information from 2001/02, the fifth place among exporters of wheat, second
among exporters of corn, first among exporters of soybean flour and oil, and the first among exporters of sunflower flour and oil, but this scenario will not be the same next year.
As it seems, the devaluation of the
local currency (the Argentine peso) and its announced reactivating power for exportations, could not counteract the negative effects of the current economic crisis, and producers will feel the consequences when
evaluating what and when to sow.
Agricultural monthly estimates published during the month of May by the Argentine Department of Agriculture point out that the coverage during the 2002/03 wheat campaign will reach a
plantation area of nearly 7 million hectares in the entire country. Other analysts are not as optimistic and expect the figure to be slightly over 6 million hectares. Everything seems to indicate that producers will
abandon wheat and choose soybean, a crop with lower productive risks.
Producers who decide to continue with wheat, in spite of everything, will have to face the lack of fertilizers (caused by the drop in
importations) and other factors that will inexorably provoke a lower cost/benefit ratio for this crop. "This year, forget about French wheat. Whoever plants wheat will barely be able to use phosphorates, if he can find
them," commented a specialist a few days ago.
However, "the possibility of revenue offered by wheat towards the end of this year, is what will drive producers to choose wheat" was one of the answers rehearsed by the
Argentine Secretary of Agriculture when justifying the official optimistic calculations.
Meanwhile, USDA technicians also considered a depressed scenario and projected that the national production of wheat and corn
will reach 16.5 and 11 million tons, respectively.
If these estimates are reached, the lack of liquidity of national economy will not be reverted. This year, the main source of income for Argentina will be centered on
the dollars obtained from sales to foreign countries. If exportations fall, the consequences will be very harsh for the national economy in general, not only for agricultural producers.
E-campo.com
